🏆 Top 10 — SysZero2Hero Odds
Our own odds — not one book's board. A blended model: market consensus across five books, adjusted for how teams are actually playing (see "How our odds work" below). Tap AFC / NFC to filter. The % is our model's win chance; these prices carry no vig, so they don't sum to 100%.
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Our odds | Market → model |
|---|
Just outside: Cincinnati Bengals +1960 (4.9%) · Detroit Lions +2160 (4.4%) · Denver Broncos +2160 (4.4%). The Philadelphia Eagles fall all the way to +4900 (2.0%) in our model.
Movement vs. the market: Rams — the market favourite at ~+700 consensus, but our model says +790: the market is overpaying for a 2–3 team. Vikings — market ~+2200 consensus, our model +1840: value. Jaguars — DraftKings' +2200 is a big outlier; the other four books say +1100–1200, and our model lands at +940.
How our odds work
- Market consensus: average the implied probability (100 ÷ (odds + 100)) for each team across five books — bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel — from the Oct 13 board.
- Gameplay adjustment: multiply by a factor = 1 + 0.5 × (win% − 0.60) + 0.02 × (point differential per game), capped at 0.80–1.30 — with small manual haircuts for QB health (Ravens −5% for Jackson's ankle, Bears −3% for the 5-turnover game) and a +5% bump for Detroit's ball security (Goff: 0 INT).
- Convert back: American odds = 100 × (1 − p) ÷ p.
These are independent model prices, not a book's board — they carry no vig and don't sum to 100%. Use them to compare teams and spot value against the books.
🎯 Quarterback Stats
The full picture — not just yards. Volume, scoring, mistakes and efficiency together tell you which contenders can actually win in February. Click a column header to sort.
| Quarterback | Pass yards ↕ | TDs ↕ | INTs ↕ | Rating ↕ | Story |
|---|
Most efficient
Lamar Jackson — 119.6 rating (No. 1) and Brock Purdy — 119.3 (No. 2). Purdy pairs it with a league-best 13 passing TDs, which is why San Francisco's price keeps shortening. Jackson did it while battling an ankle issue — Baltimore held him out in Week 5 (see injuries).
Cleanest football
Jared Goff — 0 interceptions in 5 games, the only QB with 7+ TDs and no pick. The next-cleanest scorer is Geno Smith (6 TDs, no INT). In January, one bad throw ends a season; Goff isn't giving games away.
Most dangerous dual threat
Josh Allen — 15 total TDs. 1,249 passing yards + 239 rushing yards, including 121 rushing yards in the OT win over the Rams, and 7 rushing TDs tied for the league lead. Buffalo goes as far as Allen carries them.
🔄 Turnovers — The Hidden Playoff Stat
Championships turn on the ball. Teams that take it away — and don't give it away — win in January. Here's who is winning that battle through Week 5.
Takeaways per game — Leaders
Minnesota is the complete package: No. 1 in points allowed (12.8/game), No. 3 in yards allowed and top-3 in takeaways. That's a defence that travels in the playoffs.
Giveaways — Who's hurting themselves?
5 turnovers in a 31–7 loss to Green Bay with Caleb Williams out
Sam Darnold intercepted twice, sacked 5 times vs. San Francisco
Matthew Stafford — 2 INTs in the Week 4 win at Philadelphia
The flip side: Detroit (Goff, 0 INT) is protecting the ball best among high-volume passing teams — a big reason the Lions score a league-high 32.8 points per game without wasting drives.
📏 Most Yards
Season leaders through Week 5 games (Oct. 11, 2026).
Passing yards
Rushing yards
Gibbs exploded for 151 rushing yards + 56 receiving in Detroit's 45–21 win at Arizona.
Receiving yards
🏈 Most Touchdowns
Scoring leaders through Week 5.
Passing TDs
Rushing TDs
Receiving TDs
📊 Team Stats Snapshot
What separates the contenders — through Week 5.
Offence
DET 32.8 · BUF 31.8 · SF 30.8
LAR 417.0 · KC 412.0 · CAR 405.8
CHI 173.2 · ATL 166.8 · BAL 164.4
CAR 301.2 · LAR 290.2 · DET 279.6
Defence
MIN 12.8 · JAX 14.0 · SF 18.6
LAR 247.5 · SEA 251.2 · MIN 259.8
JAX 63.8 · TB 72.8 · HOU 78.4
DET 4.0 · HOU 3.6 · CIN / MIN / NYJ 3.4
until kickoff at SoFi Stadium
🩹 Weekly Injury List — Week 6 / 7
The injuries that move odds. Updated Monday, Oct. 12, 2026 for the Week 6 slate (Bears at Falcons, Bills–Rams aftermath, Bucs–Cowboys). Filter by status:
Biggest odds impact: Baker Mayfield (OUT, 3–6 weeks) — Tampa Bay is already 1–4 and now starts a backup. Lamar Jackson's ankle is the AFC's swing injury: Baltimore won without him in Week 5, but a longer absence would flip the Ravens' +690 model price fast.
How to read this board
Odds like +575 mean a $100 bet pays $575 profit. Shorter odds = more likely in the model's eyes. Futures prices move on one thing more than any other: quarterback health. That's why this page pairs the odds with the QB table, the turnover battle, and the injury list every Monday — check all four before you believe any single ranking.